Maxent Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Castanopsis carlesii under Various Climate Change Scenarios in China

Castanopsis carlesii (Hemsl.) Hayata. 1917 is an established subtropical evergreen broad-leaved tree species with rapid growth rates and a strong plasticity to environmental changes. It widely distributed in East Asia; however, it unclear how climate change influences the distribution of this species. Based on 210 valid occurrence records 10 variables, we used maximum entropy model (Maxent) predict its potential geographical under present three future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 SSP585) both 2050s 2070s, determined influence C. carlesii. The area curve (AUC) value simulated training test were 0.949 0.920, respectively, indicating excellent forecast. main climatic factors affecting are mainly precipitation, especially that driest month (Bio14, 75.5%), annual precipitation (Bio12, 14.3%); total contribution rate 89.8%. However, impact average mean temperature lesser comparison (Bio1, 5.7%). According present-day predictions, has suitable habitat 208.66 × 104 km2 across most tropical regions south Yangtze River. medium high suitability areas Taiwan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hainan Guangxi Provinces. With projected warm future, exhibited tendency northward expansion along Qinling–Huaihe line, manifested as increase low areas. high-suitable decreased significantly for only few showed contraction Therefore, can be cultivation or introduction trials, while require enhanced preservation collection genetic resources. Our findings provide theoretical basis formulating adaptation protection strategies cope well guidance introduction, sustainable development